Market Timing
🟡 CAUTION — Loading…
| Indicator | Value | Score |
|---|---|---|
| SOX/QQQ Ratio | — | ○ +0 |
| VIX Structure | — | ○ +0 |
| Index Health | — | ○ +0 |
| Breadth | — | ○ +0 |
| Macro Floor | — | ○ +0 |
| CFNAI | — | ○ +0 |
Auto-calculated · updates on page load
Score: — / 6
| Phase | Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Phase 1 — Green | Score ≥ 5/6 · SOX leading, breadth healthy, VIX calm, CFNAI above trend | Hold longs · buy dips aggressively |
| 🟡 Phase 2-3 — Watch | Score 3–4/6 · mixed signals, SOX diverging | Reduce risk · tighten stops · no new longs |
| 🔴 Phase 4 — Red | Score ≤ 2/6 · Nasdaq breakdown, SOX bear market | Exit growth positions · move to cash |
Early Warning (SOX / QQQ Ratio)
SOXX / QQQ Daily Ratio with 200-Day SMA + Normalized Prices
Ratio above amber 200 SMA = healthy bull. Ratio breaks below 200 SMA = Phase 2 critical warning ⚠
7-day trend · last 7 trading days
Phase: —
—
Based on 7-day ratio slope
| Slope | Phase | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ Sharp Up | Early/Mid Bull | Buy dips aggressively |
| ↘ Divergent | Late Bull | Optimal sell window |
| ↓ Sharp Down | Early Bear | Exit all growth |
| → Neutral | Transition | Monitor direction |
Current Ratio—
200 SMA—
Status—
VIX Term Structure
VIX / VIX3M Ratio — Complacency vs Panic
< 0.85 = Extreme complacency, Late Bull warning 🟡 · > 1.05 = Backwardation, Panic / Bottoming 🟢
Index Health — Traffic Light
Distance from 52-Week High
SPY
—
from 52w high
QQQ
—
from 52w high
SOXX
—
from 52w high
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Market Breadth
SPY Price + RSP/SPY Breadth Ratio vs 200-Day SMA
SPY Price vs 200 SMA
RSP/SPY Breadth Ratio vs 200 SMA
| Price | Internals | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Strong | ✅ Confirm | Broad participation. Safest to be long. |
| Bullish | Weak | ⚠ Diverge | Generals leading, soldiers retreating. High risk. |
| Bearish | Strong | ↗ Accum | Price lagging, stocks rising under the hood. |
| Bearish | Weak | 🔴 Capitul | Maximum systemic weakness. |
RSP/SPY ratio = Equal Weight vs Cap Weight S&P 500. Rising ratio = broad participation (healthy). Falling ratio = narrow leadership (warning).
Macro Floor
4-Week MA of Initial Claims (IC4WSA)
Current —
Prev week —
4wk ago —
4-week MA smooths weekly noise. Rising claims confirm exit from Yellow Zone into true recessionary bear market. Used as lagging confirmation only.
Economic Activity Index
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) — Expansion vs Contraction
CFNAI-MA3 (0 = long-term trend baseline)
scroll to zoom · drag to pan
| CFNAI-MA3 | Meaning | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > +0.20 | Strong expansion | ✅ Strongest macro tailwind |
| 0 to +0.20 | Moderate expansion | ↑ Above-trend growth — bullish backdrop |
| −0.70 to 0 | Below-trend growth | ⚠ Slowing — watch for deterioration |
| < −0.70 | Recession territory | 🔴 Recession risk — risk-off mode |
CFNAI-MA3 is a 3-month moving average of 85 US economic indicators. Below −0.70 historically coincides with recession onset. Monthly data via FRED.