Market Timing
๐ก CAUTION โ Loadingโฆ
| Indicator | Value | Score |
|---|---|---|
| SOX/QQQ Ratio | โ | โ +0 |
| VIX Structure | โ | โ +0 |
| Index Health | โ | โ +0 |
| Breadth | โ | โ +0 |
| Macro Floor | โ | โ +0 |
| CFNAI | โ | โ +0 |
Auto-calculated ยท updates on page load
Score: โ / 6
| Phase | Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|
| ๐ข Phase 1 โ Green | Score โฅ 5/6 ยท SOX leading, breadth healthy, VIX calm, CFNAI above trend | Hold longs ยท buy dips aggressively |
| ๐ก Phase 2-3 โ Watch | Score 3โ4/6 ยท mixed signals, SOX diverging | Reduce risk ยท tighten stops ยท no new longs |
| ๐ด Phase 4 โ Red | Score โค 2/6 ยท Nasdaq breakdown, SOX bear market | Exit growth positions ยท move to cash |
Early Warning (SOX / QQQ Ratio)
SOXX / QQQ Daily Ratio with 200-Day SMA + Normalized Prices
Ratio above amber 200 SMA = healthy bull. Ratio breaks below 200 SMA = Phase 2 critical warning โ
7-day trend ยท last 7 trading days
Phase: โ
โ
Based on 7-day ratio slope
| Slope | Phase | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| โ Sharp Up | Early/Mid Bull | Buy dips aggressively |
| โ Divergent | Late Bull | Optimal sell window |
| โ Sharp Down | Early Bear | Exit all growth |
| โ Neutral | Transition | Monitor direction |
Current Ratioโ
200 SMAโ
Statusโ
VIX Term Structure
VIX / VIX3M Ratio โ Complacency vs Panic
< 0.85 = Extreme complacency, Late Bull warning ๐ก ยท > 1.05 = Backwardation, Panic / Bottoming ๐ข
Index Health โ Traffic Light
Distance from 52-Week High
SPY
โ
from 52w high
QQQ
โ
from 52w high
SOXX
โ
from 52w high
Loadingโฆ
Market Breadth
SPY Price + RSP/SPY Breadth Ratio vs 200-Day SMA
SPY Price vs 200 SMA
RSP/SPY Breadth Ratio vs 200 SMA
| Price | Internals | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Strong | โ Confirm | Broad participation. Safest to be long. |
| Bullish | Weak | โ Diverge | Generals leading, soldiers retreating. High risk. |
| Bearish | Strong | โ Accum | Price lagging, stocks rising under the hood. |
| Bearish | Weak | ๐ด Capitul | Maximum systemic weakness. |
RSP/SPY ratio = Equal Weight vs Cap Weight S&P 500. Rising ratio = broad participation (healthy). Falling ratio = narrow leadership (warning).
Macro Floor
4-Week MA of Initial Claims (IC4WSA)
Current โ
Prev week โ
4wk ago โ
4-week MA smooths weekly noise. Rising claims confirm exit from Yellow Zone into true recessionary bear market. Used as lagging confirmation only.
Economic Activity Index
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) โ Expansion vs Contraction
CFNAI-MA3 (0 = long-term trend baseline)
scroll to zoom ยท drag to pan
| CFNAI-MA3 | Meaning | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > +0.20 | Strong expansion | โ Strongest macro tailwind |
| 0 to +0.20 | Moderate expansion | โ Above-trend growth โ bullish backdrop |
| โ0.70 to 0 | Below-trend growth | โ Slowing โ watch for deterioration |
| < โ0.70 | Recession territory | ๐ด Recession risk โ risk-off mode |
CFNAI-MA3 is a 3-month moving average of 85 US economic indicators. Below โ0.70 historically coincides with recession onset. Monthly data via FRED.